By The Way – What Happened To The Elephant?
09/12/2011
In the early hours of this morning, leaders of European Union countries emerged, bleary-eyed, into the harsh lights of the media scrum gathered outside the summit in Brussels.
As they did so, short statements were made and sound bites recorded for later news bulletins.
It soon became clear that the United Kingdom had not moved from the position articulated before the meeting – that any attempt to change the European Treaty in order to create a regulatory framework for the financial sector, applicable across all Member States, would be vetoed.
When the Prime Minister, David Cameron, gave his Press Statement, one could sum it up in a couple of sentences – “I said I would veto a change in the Treaty in the interest of the United Kingdom if needs be” and “The Eurozone nations will receive our support in their efforts to stabilise the Euro”.
In holding this line – in the face of considerable opposition from other European Leaders – David Cameron has done this nation a great service. The last thing we need is even more regulation from Brussels.
Of all the EU nations, the UK has the greatest proportion of income from the financial sector. There is no doubt that regulation designed elsewhere would be created in a manner that sought to even that out – to our loss, both in terms of employment and contribution to our tax base.
One of the suggestions being floated at a European level is that of a financial transaction tax, the so-called “Tobin Tax”. As ideas go, this one is probably as hopeless as one of Baldrick’s “cunning plans” – the flaw being that it would be avoided by institutions simply shifting their transactions to China or, more likely the USA – something which is relatively simple in an electronic age. As if that was not enough, guess who would pay it? You and I – because every Pension, Savings Account and Endowment Policy would cost more to administer and these costs would be passed on to the customer.
(If anyone is reading who wants to pay more money in tax, may I suggest a contribution to “Help for Heroes” or the Police Convalescent Homes instead?)
Over the next few days, the United Kingdom will be criticised for this stance. I have no doubt that by Monday, when David Cameron makes a statement in Parliament about the summit, the Labour Party will talk about “a two-speed Europe with Britain in the slow lane”.
Let alone the fact that this tired old sound bite has been around for all my adult life and leaving aside the complete shambles of Labour’s approach to Economic Policy – I, for one, am quite happy to make slow progress to balancing the nations budget with record low interest rates and to leave others driving towards a financial disaster as quickly as they like.
The main reason for my view is the Eurozone Leaders have not even addressed the “Elephant In The Room” that is the catastrophic levels of deficit and debt in the southern European states. Their proposals are to lend more money to people who cannot repay their existing debt. Those nations simply do not have the level of economic activity – let alone growth – to get out of the mess they are in.
The Foreign Secretary, William Hague, has been proven right time and time again in his description of the Euro as a “burning building with no exits”. He recently explained it to me – Greece owes money in Euros. If they leave the single currency and revert to a devalued Drachma, they STILL owe Euros – with their own currency worth much less. The impact on Greece and the other Euro nations with unsustainable borrowing levels of a disorderly break up of the Euro will be devastating.
Such a break up will have an effect on the Eurozone, the other European nations and indeed the global financial system. Both David Cameron and William Hague, who have dealt with this week’s summit so well, have frequently said a disorderly break up will damage our national interest and they will work with the Eurozone leaders and others in the EU to do all they can to avoid it.
This will require finesse and balance, not giving up sovereignty, whilst helping the Eurozone to overcome its problems. Different leaders – and certainly the last Administration – would be tempted to give away far too much with nothing in return. Witness Alistair Darling, who in the dying days of Labour Government, committed us to the “open cheque book” that was the European Bail Out Fund – despite the fact he had spent all the money we had already!
The real solution for the Eurozone nations is to recognise their primary task of acknowledging the Elephant in their room – their structural deficit as a group of nations – and then take the tough decisions that all politicians should in dealing with a crisis to be able to deal with it.






